There is a popular thread on Namepros, "Will .com ever die ?" The thread has now gotten over 140 replies and the answers run the gamut. But is the wrong question being asked ? If the Internet continues to run in its current form and we use extensions to determine location then .com is going nowhere.
A more appropriate question would be, "Will .com continue to command the prices it does in the secondary market ?" Discussing that is probably what matters more to domain investors. Frank Schilling has already called a high water mark for .com. Others could not disagree more.
There is no doubt that there will be a lot of new choices coming to those interested in a domain name. There will be opportunity as well as failure in just about every extension. Nothing can be dismissed in a blanket statement, none of the hyperbole that the domain industry loves. "New Tlds will suck",".Com is King Forever", ".Web is going to overtake .com" etc…..
You need to know how you will position yourself to take advantage of each opportunity, and obviously each one will be different. Some new tlds will be too expensive, run auctions for the top words that get bid into the four and five figure range. Maybe your opportunity lies in picking up some good .coms that someone else sells cheap to get into the next big thing.
Tech moves fast, this is not like buying some savings bonds and holding for years, you need to be concerned with the present with an eye on the future. Looking for comforting statements like, just hold these names and you will be fine, is not smart advice.
Have you been making money while .com has been the undisputed leader in domain sales ? No ? Then why will it change ? You need to maybe change your strategy.
Remember when reading a thread like the one above, who is answering the question. Someone with great .com domains most likely will have a different answer than someone who has no good .coms and has an alt extension portfolio.